The Santiago Index · Prediction scorecard
Predictions on the record.
Dated, falsifiable claims filed from the Council's reports, scored as the evidence arrives. Predictions are never deleted, including the ones the Council gets wrong.
On file
11
Pending
11
Confirmed
0
Contradicted
0
Accuracy
None resolved
DL-003
Filed 2026-10-19
At least one US state bill or formal agency guidance will propose giving deployers a right of access to developer incident or evaluation evidence when the deployer faces liability for agent behavior, establishing reciprocal evidence access as a recognized policy concept
Structural · Target 31 December 2027 · from Deployer Liability and AI Kill Switches: What California's OpenAI Subpoena and Newsom's Executive Order Mean for Agent Builders
Pending
DL-002
Filed 2026-10-19
No California state enforcement action, subpoena or complaint publicly naming a downstream deployer (as opposed to a model developer) for an AI agent containment failure will be announced before mid-2027, while at least one major frontier vendor will publicly market a product or enterprise tier positioned as kill-switch or containment compliance for agent deployments
Directional · Target 30 June 2027 · from Deployer Liability and AI Kill Switches: What California's OpenAI Subpoena and Newsom's Executive Order Mean for Agent Builders
Pending
DL-001
Filed 2026-10-19
The expert panel recommendations under Executive Order N-9-26 will be submitted and publicly described as placing kill-switch and verification obligations on frontier model developers, with no binding kill-switch obligation imposed directly on downstream deployers
Timestamped · Target 31 December 2026 · from Deployer Liability and AI Kill Switches: What California's OpenAI Subpoena and Newsom's Executive Order Mean for Agent Builders
Pending
LG-008
Filed 2026-03-09
The "everyone is that guy now" dynamic will be widely acknowledged in mainstream business press
Directional · No target date · from The Last Generation of the Old World
Pending
LG-007
Filed 2026-03-09
Humanoid robots will enter consumer-facing commercial environments by 2031
Timestamped · Target 31 December 2031 · from The Last Generation of the Old World
Pending
LG-006
Filed 2026-03-09
Expertise democratization will make domain knowledge alone insufficient as a career moat
Structural · No target date · from The Last Generation of the Old World
Pending
LG-005
Filed 2026-03-09
The degree credential will stop functioning as a reliable employment bridge
Structural · No target date · from The Last Generation of the Old World
Pending
LG-004
Filed 2026-03-09
Schools will double down on AI bans rather than integrate AI into curriculum
Directional · No target date · from The Last Generation of the Old World
Pending
LG-003
Filed 2026-03-09
The labor market will split into Operators and Dependents as the dominant economic divide
Structural · No target date · from The Last Generation of the Old World
Pending
LG-002
Filed 2026-03-09
AI will coordinate physical robot fleets in commercial settings within 5 years
Threshold · Target 1 March 2031 · from The Last Generation of the Old World
Pending
LG-001
Filed 2026-03-09
Entry-level white-collar job categories will contract materially by 2029
Timestamped · Target 31 December 2029 · from The Last Generation of the Old World
Pending
How predictions are scored
- Confirmed (5): Real-world events clearly validated the prediction
- Trending Confirmed (4): Evidence mounting strongly in predicted direction
- Pending (3): Insufficient evidence yet, prediction remains live
- Trending Contradicted (2): Evidence mounting against the prediction
- Contradicted (1): Real-world events clearly invalidated the prediction
- Retired (0): Time-bound prediction window closed without resolution