The Santiago Index
Methodology
How we measure the balance between Builder Momentum and Dependency Creep in the age of AI.
Two readings
The two meters.
Both run from 10 to 100 and move independently. Both can rise in the same week.
- Builder Momentum
- Measures signals indicating that AI is empowering individuals to build, create, and own their work. High Builder Momentum suggests the technology is enabling distributed innovation and individual agency.
- Dependency Creep
- Measures signals indicating increased reliance on centralized platforms, erosion of individual capability, and growing systemic dependencies. High Dependency Creep suggests concerning concentration of power.
Six weighted signals
Signal categories.
Each category is scored 1 to 10 on both bars every week. The weights sum to 100.
Labor Market
Entry-level job posting volume, AI-cited layoffs, new operator roles created.
Builder signals
New operator roles, AI-augmented job growth, Skill premium increase
Dependency signals
Entry-level job cuts, AI-cited layoffs, Credential inflation
Education
AI ban policies, integration pilots, alternative school enrollment.
Builder signals
AI integration pilots, Alternative school growth, Skill-based learning adoption
Dependency signals
AI bans in schools, Credential doubling-down, Standardized test reliance
Platform Power
Open-source releases vs closed platform lock-in, API pricing changes.
Builder signals
Open-source model releases, API price drops, Interoperability standards
Dependency signals
Platform lock-in events, API price hikes, Walled garden expansion
Builder Activity
New AI tools by individuals/small teams, GitHub open-source velocity.
Builder signals
Indie AI tool launches, GitHub project velocity, Solo developer success stories
Dependency signals
Indie tool acquisitions, Market consolidation, Barrier to entry increases
Policy and Regulation
Government AI regulations, concentration vs distribution of AI governance.
Builder signals
Pro-builder regulations, Distributed governance, Open licensing frameworks
Dependency signals
Regulatory capture, Concentration of AI power, Compliance barriers
Public Sentiment
Media tenor on AI, fear vs empowerment framing in coverage.
Builder signals
Empowerment framing, Builder success stories, Agency narratives
Dependency signals
Fear framing, Doom coverage, Helplessness narratives
How the needle moves
Scoring rules.
Applied per category and per bar. A signal is an article finding (council median, with a quote and a source) or the weekly council assessment moving a category score. A bar moves to the council's proposed score only when 3 or more unapplied signals from the last 28 days point that way, or one SIGNIFICANT article finding does. Signals that move the needle are consumed.
Independence
Both meters can rise or fall simultaneously. They are not a zero-sum game.
Scaling
Each category is scored 1 to 10 on both bars. Each meter = (25 x labor + 20 x education + 20 x platform + 15 x builder + 10 x policy + 10 x sentiment) / 10, so it runs from 10 to 100.
Inertia
Needles move slowly. Requires 3+ signals in the same direction OR a significant threshold event, per category and bar. Signals count for 28 days; the score moves to the council's proposed score and the signals that moved it are used up.
Permanence
Predictions are never deleted. Contradicted predictions remain visible with their score.
Weekly Cadence
Readings are updated weekly based on signal assessments across all six categories.
How predictions are scored
- Confirmed (5): Real-world events clearly validated the prediction
- Trending Confirmed (4): Evidence mounting strongly in predicted direction
- Pending (3): Insufficient evidence yet, prediction remains live
- Trending Contradicted (2): Evidence mounting against the prediction
- Contradicted (1): Real-world events clearly invalidated the prediction
- Retired (0): Time-bound prediction window closed without resolution
Declared perspective
The Santiago Index measures the AI transition through the lens of Freedom Tech and human agency. It is not a neutral instrument. Its definitions of Builder Momentum and Dependency Creep reflect specific values: individual sovereignty, data ownership, platform independence, and the belief that AI should empower rather than replace human capability. This perspective is stated explicitly rather than hidden behind false neutrality.